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☆ How China can rescue itself and restore confidence, according to a UBS economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Market confidence can rebound if Beijing is less hesitant about implementing solutions, specifically those targeting its spanning property sector and domestic consumption. Lower rates would depreciate the yuan, some fear, but this risk would diminish alongside an economic support package, Wang said. Advertisement"The benefit of rate cuts is likely to far outweigh the negative impact of modestly widening the US-China rate gap," she noted.

Persons: Tao Wang, —, Wang Organizations: UBS, FT, Service, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Starting Feb. 5, the People's Bank of China will allow banks to hold smaller cash reserves, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said at a press conference, his first in the role. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points is set to release 1 trillion yuan ($139.8 billion) in long-term capital, the central bank said. A 2 trillion yuan boost? Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday called for much stronger measures to boost market stability and confidence, according to an official readout. Chinese authorities in October already announced the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds, alongside a rare increase in the deficit.

Persons: Gongsheng, Pan Gongsheng, Tao Wang, Ting Lu, a, Lu, Wang, Stocks, Winnie Wu, That's, Li Qiang, Pan, Philip Yin, David Chao, Pan's Organizations: People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Financial, Getty, Visual China, People's Bank of, UBS Investment Bank, Wednesday, National Financial Regulatory Administration, UBS, Bank of America's, Bloomberg, PBOC, Citi, U.S, Asia Pacific, CNBC Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Hong Kong, capitulating, Japan, Invesco

Lending data from China's central bank offers a glimpse of government priorities: as of the end of September, outstanding loans to the troubled property sector fell 0.2% year-on-year but lending to the manufacturing sector jumped 38.2%. This time, the government's focus is narrower, targeting high-tech and "advanced manufacturing", a goal laid out in 2021 in the 14th five-year plan. It grew 11.3% in the first nine months of 2023 year-on-year, compared with 6.3% for overall manufacturing investment, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. For example, Guangdong province has increased lending to both high-tech and advanced manufacturing by about 45%, state media reported. During the first half of 2023, outstanding loans to the high-tech manufacturing sector in the eastern province of Shandong jumped 67%.

Persons: Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Tao Wang, Wang, Fu, Lu Zhengwei, Siyi Liu, Kripa Jayaram, Robert Birsel Organizations: Rights, European Chamber of Commerce, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, U.S, Reuters Graphics, overcapacity, HSBC, UBS, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Rystad Energy, EV, China Passenger Car Association, Bank, Industrial Bank, Thomson Locations: Suqian, Jiangsu province, China, CHINA, Rights BEIJING, Europe, Beijing, San Francisco, Xi, Asia, Guangdong province, Shandong, Dongguan, Shanghai

☆ Crisis at Evergrande deepens as it misses another bond payment
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —Evergrande Group has just missed another bond payment, casting further doubt over the future of the embattled property developer at the epicenter of China’s real estate crisis. China’s property industry once accounted for as much as 30% of the country’s gross domestic product. Questions about financial stabilityConcerns over China’s economic stability have resurfaced, driven by the deepening financial crisis at Evergrande, said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management. On Sunday, Evergrande surprised investors with an announcement that it was unable to issue new notes due to the investigation into Hengda. It was the first criminal probe launched against Evergrande since it was hit by the debt crisis nearly two years ago.

Persons: Evergrande, Tao Wang, Stephen Innes, ”, Innes, Mengchen Zhang, Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Evergrande, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Getty, China, Asia Economics, UBS, CNN, Evergrande Locations: China, Hong Kong, AFP, Asia, Evergrande

☆ Analysis: China's economic woes embolden calls for deeper reforms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Both camps argue their proposals should be treated with urgency by policymakers, ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting gathering of top leaders expected in December. The pro-reform camp is beating the drum for faster structural reforms, including relaxing the system of residence permits, or "hukou", to spur consumption, removing market entry barriers for private firms at the cost of state giants. Reforms are urgently needed as growth engines such as property, exports and infrastructure are stalling, he said. Structural reforms with expansionary effects can also have immediate effects." TIGHTROPEDespite the heated debate, analysts expect Chinese leaders can walk a tightrope between stimulus and reforms.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, Yu Yongding, Yu, Kristalina Georgieva, Liu Shijin, Liu, It's, Tao Wang, Deng Xiaoping, Yi Xianrong, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: Central Business, REUTERS, Economic Work Conference, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Fund, UBS, Asian Development Bank, Qingdao University, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING, China's, United States

☆ China may 'miss the 5%' growth target this year as downside risks spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Greg Baker | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Without more stimulus, China is increasingly likely to miss its growth target of around 5% this year, economists said. "In such a case, economic momentum may stay subdued in the rest of the year and China may miss this year's growth target of around 5%," she said. China is the world's second-largest economy, and accounted for nearly 18% of global GDP in 2022, according to World Bank data. "We also see bigger downside risk to our 4.9% y-o-y growth forecast for both Q3 and Q4, and it is increasingly possible that annual GDP growth this year will miss the 5.0% mark," the report said. Growth vs. national securityChinese authorities' initial crackdown on real estate developers in 2020 was an attempt to curb their high reliance on growth.

Persons: Greg Baker, Tao Wang, spender, Nomura Ting Lu, Ting Lu, haven't, Louise Loo, Loo, that's, Xiangrong Yu, Gabriel Wildau, Teneo, Wildau Organizations: Afp, Getty, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, China, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, Zhongrong International Trust, Information, Beijing, CNBC, Baoshang Bank, Anbang Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, China, Asia, People's Bank of China

Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. BEIJING'S DILEMMALocal government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.8 trillion), or 76% of economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019. To avoid that risk, the adviser suggested all stakeholders bear some of the burden: financial institutions, local governments, Beijing and society at large. From 2015 to 2018, local governments issued some 12 trillion yuan of bonds to swap for off-balance sheet debt. For the local debt problem to stop re-occuring policymakers need to implement profound changes to how the economy works.

Persons: Florence Lo, China's, Guo Tianyong, Logan Wright, ”, Tao Wang, Guo, Rhodium's Wright, Marius Zaharia Organizations: REUTERS, Beijing, Communist Party, Central University of Finance, Economics, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Local, UBS, BBVA, Thomson Locations: Beijing, BEIJING, “, China, Lincoln

☆ China's economy is undergoing a structural transition, so don't expect a massive stimulus package, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is transitioning away from previous growth drivers, UBS analyst Tao Wang wrote. Instead of a spending binge, Wang said that China should implement modest stimulus as well as policies aimed at structural issues. In the long term, stepping away from large government support may be beneficial to the country's economy, she added. That's as it could clear inefficient market participants, allow development in the private sector, and enable more social spending. "Such a realignment of the roles of the state and the market would be welcome," Wang wrote.

Persons: Tao Wang, —, Wang Organizations: UBS, Financial Times, Service, UBS Investment Research Locations: Beijing, China

☆ China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note. Reuters GraphicsThe expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said. "Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

Property investment in November fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year. "Although property sales and starts will likely be slightly weaker than in 2022, property will be much less of a drag on the economy than in 2022." Reuters GraphicsHOUSING DEMANDShares in embattled Chinese property developers have gained 86% since the trough in October, buoyed by a string of property easing measures and the COVID policy u-turn. "We may be close to see some bottoming out in housing demand …but I don't think we're quite there yet," he said. The latest China Beige Book private economic survey was more blunt: "But forget a return to days of old: it will take considerable policy support in 2023 just to pull property out of the gutter."

The plan comes as the cash-strapped sector has struggled with defaults and stalled projects, hitting market confidence and weighing on the world's second-largest economy. Policymakers' previous efforts to help financing has done little to bolster the property market. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) jumped 16.2%, with the share prices of many Chinese property developers posting double-digit gains. The notice "introduced by far the most comprehensive set of support measures for the ailing property market," it said. Some investors remained cautious about the impact of the latest policy, however, as regulators have already made many attempts to revive the property sector and the macro environment remains weak amid the country's COVID restrictions.

☆ China's real estate crisis could be over with new rescue plan. Property stocks are soaring
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Chinese authorities are making their biggest effort yet to end a crisis in the country’s vast real estate sector that has weighed heavily on the economy over the past year. Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, described the package of measures as a “turning point” for China’s property sector. Along with other policies announced earlier this year, it could inject more than 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) into real estate, she estimated. In October, sales by the 100 biggest real estate developers contracted 26.5% from a year ago, according to a private survey by China Index Academy, a top real estate research firm. “Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy, despite some latest fine tuning, will continue to weigh on the property sector,” they added.

☆ China's economy may have done well in August but outlook remains grim
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Despite an upbeat batch of economic data from China last week, including retail sales and industrial production beating estimates, economists are standing by their pessimism. UBS downgraded its full-year growth forecasts from 3% to 2.7% for 2022 and from 5.4% to 4.6% for 2023. Wang adds that the revised 2023 forecast is still based on a scenario where the property market stabilizes soon and Covid restrictions ease from March onward. "We're not seeing the policy-levers being pulled necessary to facilitate a change," she said of the nation's zero-Covid policy. "Essentially zero-Covid has stomped on human investor confidence in China."

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